Despite the best laid plans, there are so many variables in agriculture that are beyond one's control that until the harvest is in, one cannot predict if one would get a harvest at all. All it takes are a few unforeseen events to put a spanner in the works just like in the last few days when the skies literally opened and buckets of water poured into already saturated fields where only runoff was the order of the day and with it top soil, and some of the fertilizer application with it.
Some of my neighbors were even far worse off than me, where due to the heavy rains the sowed seed has been washed off and they have to sow again, incurring further expense and in addition getting the fields repaired by reinforcing the boundaries.
It also meant that the application of the preemergent weedicides had to be delayed and now a different product will have to be sprayed as the product I had in hand had to be applied within 48hours of sowing. As stated in a previous blog this costs more than the fertilizer subsidy and having to rethink the replacement makes an already expensive task even more so.
A larger producer would have a greater window on which he performs his planting and therefore only a section of his cultivation would be affected as the harm to different stages in the growing process is less, the earlier the planting. They are therefore able to average out such costs unlike the small producer who suffers the loss on his complete unit.
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